We installed a TRANE XL18 HVAC with a TRANE HV80 furnace 16 years ago and it still works great in Tucson, AZ.  We inquired into a replacement for the future since the R-22 refrigerant will be off market at the end of this year.  Our maintenance folks want to sell me a new system anyway (even though the TRANE works great).  We are considering the BOSCH Inverter heat pump as a lower cost option down the road.  Watch out for the tricky salesmen trying to sell beer at champagne prices though. Get estimates on whether you need to replace your current system and how much it could cost.  And if they are factory certified.
These factors are included in a "Manual J" calculation. Contractors who make these calculations before recommending a size can take a couple of hours collecting the information and making the calculation. If your contractor doesn't do it, there are services that will do it for around $99. If you're feeling particularly on the ball, there are also free online calculators.
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